浪潮之巅.pdf

当吴军跟我谈起想写这个《浪潮之巅》系列的时候，心中吃了一惊，也有很多 感动。吃惊是因为在我的印象中，吴军是谷歌的研究员、是《数学之美》的作者、是一个科 学家，很难想象关注学术领域的他对商业领域也有着自己的观察。感动是因为收到第一篇文 章，通读下来，感觉这些故事编纂起来出一本书也不为过！但他却投给我们这个“小小”的黑板 报。读完文章受益颇丰，所以迫不及待的想分享给大家，希望大家能够喜欢。同时，也要借 这短短的文字表达对吴军的谢意。最后，因为文章篇幅比较长，只能分几次刊出，为了帮助 大家阅读和查找方便，我们单列了“浪潮之巅”栏目以期能够解决分次刊出带来的困扰。 写在前面的话.............................................. .................................................................I 作者简介......................................................................................................................II 目 录.........................................................................................................................III 序.................................................................................................................................1 第一章 帝国的余辉（AT&T)...................................................................................2 §1.1 百年帝国......................................................................................................2 §1.2 几度繁荣......................................................................................................4 §1.3 利令智昏......................................................................................................5 §1.4 外来冲击......................................................................................................7 第二章 蓝色巨人（IBM）.......................................................................................9 §2.1 赶上机械革命的最后一次浪潮....................................................................9 §2.2 领导电子技术革命的浪潮.........................................................................11 §2.3 错过全球信息化的大潮.............................................................................14 §2.4 他也是做（芯）片的.................................................................................16 §2.5 保守的创新者.............................................................................................18 §2.6 内部的优胜略汰.........................................................................................20 结束语.................................................................................................................21 第三章 “水果”公司的复兴（乔布斯和苹果公司）...............................................22 §3.1 传奇小子....................................................................................................22 §3.2 迷失方向....................................................................................................24 §3.3 再创辉煌....................................................................................................25 §3.4 大难不死....................................................................................................27 结束语.................................................................................................................29 第四章 计算机工业的生态链.................................................................................30 §4.1 摩尔定理（Moore’s Law）........................................................................30 §4.2 安迪-比尔定理（Andy and Bill’s Law）...................................................32 §4.3 反摩尔定理 （Reverse Moore’s Law）.....................................................34 第五章 奔腾的芯（英特尔 — Intel）...................................................................36 §5.1 时势造英雄................................................................................................36 §5.2 英特尔摩托罗拉之战.................................................................................38 §5.3 指令集之争................................................................................................40 浪潮之巅（On The Top of Tides） IV §5.4 英特尔和 AMD 的关系............................................................................42 §5.5 天步艰难....................................................................................................44 结束语.................................................................................................................45 第六章 IT业的罗马帝国（微软 – Microsoft）.....................................................46 §6.1 双雄会........................................................................................................46 §6.2 亡羊补牢....................................................................................................48 §6.3 人民战争....................................................................................................49 §6.4 帝国的诞生................................................................................................51 §6.5 当世拿破仑................................................................................................53 §6.6 条顿堡之战................................................................................................56 §6.7 客厅争夺战................................................................................................59 结束语.................................................................................................................60 第七章 互联网的金门大桥（思科）......................................................................62 §7.1 好风凭借力................................................................................................62 §7.2 持续发展的绝招.........................................................................................64 §7.3 竞争者........................................................................................................66 §7.4 诺威格定理的宿命.....................................................................................68 第八章 英名不朽（杨致远、费罗和雅虎公司）..................................................71 §8.1 当世福特....................................................................................................71 §8.2 流量、流量、流量.....................................................................................74 §8.3 成也萧何、败也萧何.................................................................................76 §8.4 既生瑜何生亮.............................................................................................78 §8.5 红巨星........................................................................................................80 结束语.................................................................................................................82 第九章 硅谷的见证人（惠普公司）......................................................................83 §9.1 昔日硅谷之星.............................................................................................83 §9.2 有争议的生死抉择.....................................................................................85 §9.3 最有争议的CEO........................................................................................87 §9.4 亚洲制造的冲击.........................................................................................89 §9.5 峰回路转....................................................................................................90 第十章 没落的贵族 — 摩托罗拉.........................................................................93 §10.1 二战的品牌...............................................................................................93 §10.2 黄金时代..................................................................................................94 §10.3 基因决定定理...........................................................................................96 目录 V §10.4 铱星计划..................................................................................................98 §10.5 全线溃败................................................................................................100 §10.6 回天乏力................................................................................................102 结束语...............................................................................................................103 第十一章 硅谷的另一面.......................................................................................105 §11.1 成王败寇................................................................................................105 §11.2 嗜血的地方.............................................................................................108 §11.3 机会均等.................................................................................................110 §11.4 硅含量不断降低......................................................................................113 §11.5 亘古而常青..............................................................................................114 结束语................................................................................................................118 第十二章 短暂的春秋 — 与机会失之交臂的公司..............................................119 §12.1 太阳公司 （Sun Microsystems）.........................................................119 1. 昔日的辉煌.............................................................................................119 2. 错失良机...............................................................................................122 3. 历史的回放............................................................................................125 §12.2 Novell 公司..........................................................................................127 1. 局域网的微软........................................................................................127 2. 操作系统之败........................................................................................130 §12.3 网景公司（Netscape）.........................................................................131 1. 昙花一现...............................................................................................131 2. 佩奇的解决办法....................................................................................133 §12.4 Real Networks.......................................................................................135 结束语...............................................................................................................138 第十三章 幕后的英雄 — 风险投资（Venture Capital）....................................139 §13.1 风投的起源.............................................................................................139 §13.2 风投的结构.............................................................................................141 §13.3 风投的过程.............................................................................................144 §13.4 投资的决策和公司的估价.....................................................................148 §13.5 风投的角色.............................................................................................152 §13.6 著名的风投公司.....................................................................................156 1．红杉风投..............................................................................................156 2．KPCB....................................................................................................158 结束语...............................................................................................................160 浪潮之巅（On The Top of Tides） VI 第十四章 信息产业的规律性...............................................................................161 §14.1 70-20-10律..........................................................................................161 §14.2 诺威格定理.............................................................................................166 §14.3 基因决定定理.........................................................................................170 结束语...............................................................................................................173 第十五章 高科技公司的摇篮 — 斯坦福大学....................................................175 §15.1 充满传奇的大学.....................................................................................175 §15.2 硅谷的支柱.............................................................................................178 §15.3 纽曼+洪堡的教育模式...........................................................................184 §15.4 创业的孵化器.........................................................................................188 结束语...............................................................................................................192 第十六章 科技公司的吹鼓手 — 投资银行........................................................193 前言 有幸见证历史........................................................................................193 §16.1 华尔街和美国的金融体系.....................................................................195 §16.2 著名的投资公司.....................................................................................198 1. 高盛公司...............................................................................................198 2. 摩根斯坦利............................................................................................200 §16.3 科技公司的上市过程.............................................................................202 §16.4 成也萧何，败也萧何.............................................................................204 §16.5 华尔街与微软、雅虎和 Google 的三国演义.......................................206 结束语...............................................................................................................209 第十七章 成功的转基因.......................................................................................210 §17.1 从木工厂到手机之王（诺基亚 Nokia）...............................................210 §17.2 道琼斯的常青树（3M）........................................................................213 §17.3 世界最大的联合体（GE）....................................................................216 1. 百年扩张，从有线电到无线电.............................................................217 2. 从实体经济到金融................................................................................219 3. 领袖的重要性........................................................................................221 结束语...............................................................................................................224 第十八章 印钞机 — 最佳的商业模式................................................................225 §18.1 Google 的广告系统.............................................................................226 §18.2 Ebay和亚马逊的在线市场..................................................................230 §18.3 戴尔的虚拟工厂...................................................................................234 结束语...............................................................................................................235 目录 VII 第十九章 挑战者 — Google................................................................................236 第二十章 金融危机的冲击...................................................................................237 第二十一章 互联网2.0.........................................................................................238 第二十二章 寻找下一个 Google..........................................................................239 后记.........................................................................................................................240 .................................................................I 作者简介......................................................................................................................II 目 录.........................................................................................................................III 序.................................................................................................................................1 第一章 帝国的余辉（AT&T)...................................................................................2 §1.1 百年帝国......................................................................................................2 §1.2 几度繁荣......................................................................................................4 §1.3 利令智昏......................................................................................................5 §1.4 外来冲击......................................................................................................7 第二章 蓝色巨人（IBM）.......................................................................................9 §2.1 赶上机械革命的最后一次浪潮....................................................................9 §2.2 领导电子技术革命的浪潮.........................................................................11 §2.3 错过全球信息化的大潮.............................................................................14 §2.4 他也是做（芯）片的.................................................................................16 §2.5 保守的创新者.............................................................................................18 §2.6 内部的优胜略汰.........................................................................................20 结束语.................................................................................................................21 第三章 “水果”公司的复兴（乔布斯和苹果公司）...............................................22 §3.1 传奇小子....................................................................................................22 §3.2 迷失方向....................................................................................................24 §3.3 再创辉煌....................................................................................................25 §3.4 大难不死....................................................................................................27 结束语.................................................................................................................29 第四章 计算机工业的生态链.................................................................................30 §4.1 摩尔定理（Moore’s Law）........................................................................30 §4.2 安迪-比尔定理（Andy and Bill’s Law）...................................................32 §4.3 反摩尔定理 （Reverse Moore’s Law）.....................................................34 第五章 奔腾的芯（英特尔 — Intel）...................................................................36 §5.1 时势造英雄................................................................................................36 §5.2 英特尔摩托罗拉之战.................................................................................38 §5.3 指令集之争................................................................................................40 浪潮之巅（On The Top of Tides） IV §5.4 英特尔和 AMD 的关系............................................................................42 §5.5 天步艰难....................................................................................................44 结束语.................................................................................................................45 第六章 IT业的罗马帝国（微软 – Microsoft）.....................................................46 §6.1 双雄会........................................................................................................46 §6.2 亡羊补牢....................................................................................................48 §6.3 人民战争....................................................................................................49 §6.4 帝国的诞生................................................................................................51 §6.5 当世拿破仑................................................................................................53 §6.6 条顿堡之战................................................................................................56 §6.7 客厅争夺战................................................................................................59 结束语.................................................................................................................60 第七章 互联网的金门大桥（思科）......................................................................62 §7.1 好风凭借力................................................................................................62 §7.2 持续发展的绝招.........................................................................................64 §7.3 竞争者........................................................................................................66 §7.4 诺威格定理的宿命.....................................................................................68 第八章 英名不朽（杨致远、费罗和雅虎公司）..................................................71 §8.1 当世福特....................................................................................................71 §8.2 流量、流量、流量.....................................................................................74 §8.3 成也萧何、败也萧何.................................................................................76 §8.4 既生瑜何生亮.............................................................................................78 §8.5 红巨星........................................................................................................80 结束语.................................................................................................................82 第九章 硅谷的见证人（惠普公司）......................................................................83 §9.1 昔日硅谷之星.............................................................................................83 §9.2 有争议的生死抉择.....................................................................................85 §9.3 最有争议的CEO........................................................................................87 §9.4 亚洲制造的冲击.........................................................................................89 §9.5 峰回路转....................................................................................................90 第十章 没落的贵族 — 摩托罗拉.........................................................................93 §10.1 二战的品牌...............................................................................................93 §10.2 黄金时代..................................................................................................94 §10.3 基因决定定理...........................................................................................96 目录 V §10.4 铱星计划..................................................................................................98 §10.5 全线溃败................................................................................................100 §10.6 回天乏力................................................................................................102 结束语...............................................................................................................103 第十一章 硅谷的另一面.......................................................................................105 §11.1 成王败寇................................................................................................105 §11.2 嗜血的地方.............................................................................................108 §11.3 机会均等.................................................................................................110 §11.4 硅含量不断降低......................................................................................113 §11.5 亘古而常青..............................................................................................114 结束语................................................................................................................118 第十二章 短暂的春秋 — 与机会失之交臂的公司..............................................119 §12.1 太阳公司 （Sun Microsystems）.........................................................119 1. 昔日的辉煌.............................................................................................119 2. 错失良机...............................................................................................122 3. 历史的回放............................................................................................125 §12.2 Novell 公司..........................................................................................127 1. 局域网的微软........................................................................................127 2. 操作系统之败........................................................................................130 §12.3 网景公司（Netscape）.........................................................................131 1. 昙花一现...............................................................................................131 2. 佩奇的解决办法....................................................................................133 §12.4 Real Networks.......................................................................................135 结束语...............................................................................................................138 第十三章 幕后的英雄 — 风险投资（Venture Capital）....................................139 §13.1 风投的起源.............................................................................................139 §13.2 风投的结构.............................................................................................141 §13.3 风投的过程.............................................................................................144 §13.4 投资的决策和公司的估价.....................................................................148 §13.5 风投的角色.............................................................................................152 §13.6 著名的风投公司.....................................................................................156 1．红杉风投..............................................................................................156 2．KPCB....................................................................................................158 结束语...............................................................................................................160 浪潮之巅（On The Top of Tides） VI 第十四章 信息产业的规律性...............................................................................161 §14.1 70-20-10律..........................................................................................161 §14.2 诺威格定理.............................................................................................166 §14.3 基因决定定理.........................................................................................170 结束语...............................................................................................................173 第十五章 高科技公司的摇篮 — 斯坦福大学....................................................175 §15.1 充满传奇的大学.....................................................................................175 §15.2 硅谷的支柱.............................................................................................178 §15.3 纽曼+洪堡的教育模式...........................................................................184 §15.4 创业的孵化器.........................................................................................188 结束语...............................................................................................................192 第十六章 科技公司的吹鼓手 — 投资银行........................................................193 前言 有幸见证历史........................................................................................193 §16.1 华尔街和美国的金融体系.....................................................................195 §16.2 著名的投资公司.....................................................................................198 1. 高盛公司...............................................................................................198 2. 摩根斯坦利............................................................................................200 §16.3 科技公司的上市过程.............................................................................202 §16.4 成也萧何，败也萧何.............................................................................204 §16.5 华尔街与微软、雅虎和 Google 的三国演义.......................................206 结束语...............................................................................................................209 第十七章 成功的转基因.......................................................................................210 §17.1 从木工厂到手机之王（诺基亚 Nokia）...............................................210 §17.2 道琼斯的常青树（3M）........................................................................213 §17.3 世界最大的联合体（GE）....................................................................216 1. 百年扩张，从有线电到无线电.............................................................217 2. 从实体经济到金融................................................................................219 3. 领袖的重要性........................................................................................221 结束语...............................................................................................................224 第十八章 印钞机 — 最佳的商业模式................................................................225 §18.1 Google 的广告系统.............................................................................226 §18.2 Ebay和亚马逊的在线市场..................................................................230 §18.3 戴尔的虚拟工厂...................................................................................234 结束语...............................................................................................................235 目录 VII 第十九章 挑战者 — Google................................................................................236 第二十章 金融危机的冲击...................................................................................237 第二十一章 互联网2.0.........................................................................................238 第二十二章 寻找下一个 Google..........................................................................239 后记.........................................................................................................................240